Political Capital: The Races That Will Affect the Balance of Power in the Senate
This analysis looks at the closest races in the forthcoming U.S. mid-term elections (see our commentary on why they are important to businesses operating in the U.S.), and was generated from a compilation of data from both national and local polling organizations with averages used from data compiled by www.realclearpolitics.com. With Democrats currently holding a 59-41 majority (including the two Independents) in the Senate, Republicans would need a net gain of ten seats to take over the upper chamber. With most analysts now predicting a new Republican majority in the House, these races will determine whether there will be a substantial shift in the balance of power in Washington.
Toss-ups
- Colorado: Sen. Bennet (D-CO) and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) are in a neck-and-neck race with the incumbent Bennet receiving a late boost in the polls from controversial comments Buck has made in recent weeks. Toss-up
- Illinois: Rep. Kirk (R-IL) and State Treasurer Giannoulias (D) remain locked in a neck-and-neck race with character issues continuing to dominate the race, as negative publicity over Kirk’s acknowledgment that he was untruthful about his military service and questionable loans by Giannoulias’ family bank remain the focus in the week before the election. Toss-up
- Nevada: Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) remains in a neck-and neck-race with the Tea Party Express’ preferred candidate Sharron Angle (R) as Democrats try desperately to hold on to the Majority Leader’s seat. Recent campaign stops from President Obama, Vice President Biden, President Clinton and a planned event with Michelle Obama underscore the administration’s focus on this race. Toss-up
- Washington: Former Washington State Sen. Dino Rossi (R) trails Sen. Murray (D-WA) by ~3 points in pre-election polls. Rossi is arguably the state’s most well-known Republican. Democrats are hoping this contest will serve as a firewall against a potential GOP takeover of the upper chamber. Toss-up
- West Virginia: Gov. Manchin (D) has surrendered his early polling lead and is now in a neck-and-neck race with businessman John Raese (R) for the late Sen. Byrd’s (D-WV) seat. Manchin has increasingly distanced himself from Democrats and President Obama. Over the weekend, the Governor even indicated that he may not support Sen. Reid’s bid to remain Majority Leader (should he prevail next week) or endorse President Obama in 2012. Toss-up
Current Republican Advantage
- Arkansas: Sen. Lincoln (D-AR) trails Rep. Boozman (R-AR) by close to 20 points in most polls and Democrats have all but written off this seat and left Lincoln fighting for survival largely on her own. Current Advantage-R
- Florida: Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) continues to lead Gov Crist (I) by ~12 points in most polls as this three-way race way race between Rubio, Crist, and Rep. Meek (D-FL) looks like it will stay in Republican hands. Current Advantage-R
- Indiana: Polls show former Sen. Coats (R) holding a double digit lead over Rep. Ellsworth (D-IN) with the GOP poised to pick up retiring Sen. Bayh’s (D) seat. This will likely serve as a sharp blow to Democrats as Ellsworth’s decision not to seek re-election in the House and run for Bayh’s seat has given Republicans a likely pickup in the lower chamber as well. Current Advantage-R
- Kentucky: Tea Party favorite Rand Paul (R) holds a modest lead over Attorney General Jack Conway (D) in most polls with the race turning increasingly ugly over the past few weeks as a barrage of ads attacking each other’s character and past affiliations even led Paul to refuse to shake his opponent’s hand in a recent debate. Current Advantage-R
- Missouri: Most polls give Rep. Blunt (R-MO) a ~10 point lead over Secretary of State Carnahan (D) in what was expected to be a good opportunity for Democrats to pick up a GOP-held seat due to Sen. Bond’s (R) retirement and Carnahan’s high name recognition. Current Advantage-R
- New Hampshire: Former Attorney General Ayotte (R) continues to lead Rep. Hodes (D-NH) in the race for Sen. Gregg’s (R-CT) seat. Current polls show Ayotte with an ~9 point lead. Current Advantage-R
- Ohio: Former Rep. Rob Portman (R-OH) leads Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) by ~20 points in most polls as the GOP looks poised to keep retiring Sen. Voinovich’s (R) seat. Current Advantage-R
- Pennsylvania: Recent polls indicate that Rep. Sestak (D-PA) continues to lag former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) by ~3 points in the race for Sen. Specter’s (D-PA) seat. Sestak’s late surge has largely been attributed to voters in the Southeastern Pennsylvania area being put off by Christine O’Donnell’s (R) Senate campaign in Delaware, which shares a media market with Philadelphia. Current Advantage-R
- Wisconsin: Sen. Feingold (D-WI) trails businessman Ron Johnson by ~6 points in recent polls as economic issues leave the three-term Senator fighting for his life in what looks like an increasingly tough battle. Current Advantage-R
Current Democrat Advantage
- California: Most polls give Sen. Boxer (D-CA) a low-single digit lead over Former HPQ CEO Carly Fiorina (R). President Obama has made numerous campaign stops on Boxer’s behalf to build a West Coast firewall against the potential for a Republican takeover of the upper chamber. Current Advantage-D
- Connecticut: Attorney General Richard Blumenthal’s (D) lead over former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) has increased in recent weeks with Blumenthal clinging to a ~12 point polling advantage in this normally Democratic seat. Current Advantage-D
- Delaware: New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D) continues to hold a substantial lead over Tea Party favorite Christine O’Donnell (R). Republicans have mostly written off the possibility of taking over Vice President Biden’s old seat. Current Advantage-D
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The shift of power alone away from the Democrats is enough for the Republicans the next two years. They don’t need much more than they’re already guaranteed to be able to stall any contested Obama initiative. Sadly, I believe gridlock, already in Washington now, will get much, much worse. And while I keep hearing from the economic talking heads that “gridlock is good for Wall St.”, I am a believer in the exact OPPOSITE in this current environment. We need movement to get things right…and sadly, I think we’ll see a standstill come 2011 when we need progress more than ever.
Thanks for your response, Andrew. You are definitely correct. Regardless of which side holds the majorities in either chamber, gridlock is all but assured. Additionally, with a presidential election around the corner and more than 20 Democratic Senators up for re-election in 2012, I would not expect much “major legislation” to move through Congress in the next two years.
I take a somewhat different view on the possible or likely shift in the Congress post mid-term elections. I think that there is some mechanism (perhaps not the right word) in America, whereby the people seek balance in the country by having a different party control the Congress from the one that holds the presidency. The circumstances in the mid-terms are always different, but there appears to be a desire for balance; or, in some way, Americans don’t trust the government when one party controls the legislative and executive branches. This is unfortunate. If the republicans get control of the House and/or Senate, they will no longer be in a position to JUST act as negative or obstructionist; they will be forced to try and do something constructive. The Democrats have no one to blame but themselves in the current state of politics. If you are the majority party, act like you belong there and don’t allow the bullies to push you around. Perhaps I am being Pollyannaish or unrealistic, but I think there is a chance something (don’t know what) gets done in the next couple of years.
Thanks for your response, Jerry. If we have a split Congress as many expect, Republicans will have to share the responsibility of governing and hopefully both sides will be able to work together. However, in all likelihood next week’s elections will move both parties further apart. The prevalence of Tea Party candidates on the Republican side will move the GOP to the right, while the majority of the House Democrats that are likely to go down are Blue Dog Democrats or from conservative districts that only had a chance with the excitement Obama brought in 2008. Therefore, the remaining Democrats will be more inclined to left leaning policies. With few elected officials in the middle the chances for agreement seem remote. However, I like your optimism for the next couple of years and will definitely be hoping it comes to fruition!